Bill Fleckenstein, investing, portfolio advice

TD Fall Investing GuideTD Fall Investing Guide
Bill Fleckenstein archive
  • Is it time to bet against Apple?

    I wouldn't short it just yet, but it might be time to take some profits. Apple stock has everything going for it at the moment, but the price is getting out of hand.

  • Will it be 'arrivederci' for euro?

    The psychodrama has shifted from Greece to Italy. As the powers that be struggle to contain the problem, they are just delaying the euro’s inevitable demise. Plus: Caught up in MF Global.

  • There's gold in mining stocks yet

    The market is looking at the wrong measures when it comes to companies mining gold. When it catches on, these stocks will rise. Also: Warming up the printing presses.

  • Greek debt tragedy is good for gold

    Greece's financial saga will end, at some point, in default. Plus: The U.S. Fed is fooling itself on inflation, and why American housing is still a mess.

  • Austerity? Not when we have bailouts

    Fiscal discipline is a political liability in our bailout era, making money printing the more likely course. This may boost stocks even as it erodes purchasing power.

  • Caution: More U.S. housing woes ahead

    America's banks and the U.S. Fed helped paper them over, but deep problems remain for the U.S. real estate market. And they could soon trigger even more financial turmoil.

  • Is the market rally breaking down?

    The start of a new month didn't bring out the buyers the way we've seen before in this easy-money rally. And that could be how the end begins.

  • No such thing as good inflation

    Ben Bernanke seems to have won his imaginary battle with deflation, but the U.S. Fed chief (like many others) seems oblivious to the real threat of inflation.

  • Ignoring Egypt, markets roar on

    The political crises sweeping the Middle East join the risks of unresolved economic issues at home. Yet speculators continue to run wild. How long can this go on?

  • 2011: The year of wild speculation

    From tablet devices to rare earth metals, trends are hot on Wall Street once again. But in the end, cooler heads will prevail.

  • Why gold isn't a bubble

    Yes, the price of gold keeps rising. But for gold to be a speculative bubble, lots of people would have to buy into it. So far, participation remains thin.

  • Bulls go marching into the new year

    The year opens on a strong note, with many convinced the worst is behind us. But will rising interest rates and prices cool off this optimism as 2011 rolls on?

  • Keep an eye on gold, bonds in 2011

    Rising investment interest in gold reflects investor doubts, while falling interest in bonds is a reminder of how foolish the market can be.

  • Say goodbye to the bond bull market

    Signs of a top in bond prices could set the tone for investors in 2011. The U.S. government may start having trouble funding its debt, taking away the Fed's printing press.

  • Who needs U.S. dollars when we have gold?

    The Fed's irresponsible policies have led to serious discussion of a return to a gold-based monetary system. It's about time.

  • The U.S. Fed's clear goal: Inflation

    As markets struggle to figure out the Fed's next move, they're missing an important point: The U.S. central bank will succeed at raising prices, in spades.

  • Not your grandfather's deflation

    As the U.S. Fed frets over the prospect of an overall decline in the price of goods and services, signs of rising prices abound.

  • Is the U.S. stumbling into a currency war?

    The Fed is weighing how to push more money into the American economy, and, given the central bank's record, that's bad news for the greenback. Gold, anyone?

  • Hot market demands a cool head

    Through the market's weakness over summer and its recent strength, it's been wise for investors to maintain perspective and not chase the tape too closely.

  • Cuba understands what U.S. doesn't

    As even the Cuban government lays off workers, the U.S. can't seem to face the looming problems posed by bloated public payrolls.

  • Waiting for the Fed's next blunder

    The signs are all there that the Federal Reserve is ready to step in with more policies and more money -- but without much more wisdom.

  • Inflation, stagflation and you

    How can you navigate the threat of the 'flations'? One option is to follow the yellow brick road and buy gold.

  • The next bubble is in punditry

    If a well-known economist couldn't spot the biggest equity bubble ever, I wouldn't put much faith in his prediction of a bursting bond bubble.

  • A patently obvious way to add jobs

    Help on the U.S. employment front? All it should take is a little invention, and that help is waiting for us at the underfunded patent office.

  • Stocks on the road to nowhere

    A tour through earnings season shows why the outlook for stocks is not compelling. Case in point: Microsoft's solid earnings and the market's ho-hum reaction.

  • Game on: Number nonsense continues

    Wall Street has failed to grasp that consensus earnings estimates have no bearing on a company's financial health. Plus: Why mining stocks (wrongly) get the shaft.

  • Deflation 'crisis' doesn't exist

    The growing fear of falling prices is exactly why we need to protect ourselves from rising ones -- and the money printing that produces them.

  • Chinese lesson: Better red than Fed

    The U.S. could learn something about monetary discipline and pro-capitalistic tax policies from a couple of unlikely sources: China and Russia.

  • The market's best bet right now

    If there's a sizable rally, big technology stocks seem most likely to outperform. But take care: The era of high valuations is over, and the future still looks rough.

  • The U.S. housing bubble hangover, part 2

    A booming 'shadow inventory' in the U.S. housing market is almost certain to bring another wave of falling prices and another round of Federal Reserve stimulus.

  • A guide to Fleckisms

    The Contrarian Chronicles have a language all their own. Here's your guide.

  • Why Mr. Market seems so moody

    The old man's vision must be failing. Due to the risk taking and speculation of the past decade-plus, he doesn't seem to see major developments before they hit him in the face.

  • Gold: Ultimate overdraft protection

    With uncertainty, volatility and money printing the orders of the day, one asset is the clear winner when it comes to protecting wealth.

  • Market spinning but going nowhere

    After their recent gyrations, there isn't a lot of motivation to either buy or short stocks. Plus: What's next for the tumbling euro?

  • Waking up to the golden rule

    There are signs that investors are realizing the real value of gold — and that gold stocks are like owning a piece of the moneymaking machine.

  • Europe's dilemma: Print money or cut debt?

    The euro wasn't built for this continuing battle to establish financial rules, pitting more-prudent countries against those requiring bailouts.

  • In Europe, recklessness wins again

    What sort of example is bailed-out Greece setting for the Continent? A strapped Ireland looks on, wondering whether it would be better if every country defaulted.

  • Euro trouble won't end with Greece

    Even if a solution can be found that keeps Greece in the eurozone, bigger nations face similar difficulties. And in the U.S., we may be seeing the recent rally fail.

  • Goldman-deal gamblers knew the score

    The players on both sides of the trade that the SEC has targeted knew the risks and knew one side was bound to lose. It's far from the worst sin of this mess.

  • Inflation won't be invisible for long

    One school of thought holds that when commodity prices are rising, businesses suck it up and consumers never feel it. Too bad that's wrong. Also: Are bonds for suckers?

  • Inflation warning etched in steel

    Rising steel prices -- a symptom of America's money printing -- are a harbinger of increases in other industries. Plus: The odd man out in the smart-phone market.

  • And now, the great U.S. health care bailout

    The U.S. protects the big banks and Wall Street, so why not protect everyone with health care reform? Because, like the other bailouts, this will be a financial disaster.

  • What really broke U.S. banks

    For all the finger-pointing, a thick report on Lehman shows again that incompetent management was the problem. Short-sellers merely spotted it first.

  • U.S. still printing money at full speed

    A year after the market bottom, fear has faded, and stocks are up. But what happens if the printing presses stop rolling?

  • Foreign versions of U.S. coming crisis

    Greece and the United Kingdom are suffering a dire funding problem that is headed for U.S. shores.

  • Why the Fed won't stop printing money

    Ben Bernanke can talk tough, but the U.S. economy would sputter if the cash stopped flowing. Also: The inflation or stagflation that's probably in our future.

  • U.S. will suffer its own Greek crisis

    Though the spotlight is now on Europe's financial difficulties, a recent move by China could signal the start of a similar, but much bigger, funding squeeze in America.

  • Confused? So are the markets

    Unusually strong cross-currents are creating chaos in markets all over. We need to step back to sort out what's happening with stocks, bonds, currencies and gold.

  • Why bankers haven't earned bonuses

    If the big banks really had straightened out their balance sheets and posted realistic results, they might be justified in handing out all that cash. But they haven't.

  • Why contrarian investors have an edge

    By challenging the prevailing opinion, they can spot assets the market has priced too high or too low. And that's where profits await.

  • The Men of the Broken Decade

    Since 1999, Time magazine has ignorantly lauded the blunders of Fed chiefs and their clueless cohorts. No wonder it named Ben Bernanke its Person of the Year.

  • The rally may be running out of time

    The market has had a good run this year, but it seems like a top is forming. Now's the time for caution.

  • How much longer can gold rise?

    As the precious metal continues to soar, naysayers abound. But a few things need to happen before the yellow fever cools off.

  • Arrogant U.S. Fed hasn't learned a thing

    The bubbles, toils and troubles that nearly wrecked the financial system should've been obvious to the policymaking numbskulls whose monetary tricks made matters worse.

  • India's big vote for a gold rally

    The naysayers have said gold was ready to fall at every step of its upward march toward $1,100. But the world can't get enough of the shiny stuff.

  • Three stocks for a stock picker's market

    The recent rally is impressive but historically not surprising. The U.S. Fed's money printing continues, and investor risk-taking has resumed. This all calls for caution.

  • Obama team ignores Volcker at its peril

    The former U.S. Fed chairman has terrific advice about reining in risky bank practices to prevent another financial meltdown. But the U.S. administration apparently isn't listening.

  • Is chip makers' strength an illusion?

    As expected, Intel and other companies in the sector are beating their numbers this earnings season. Here's why that success might be just a façade.

  • American dollars are just Monopoly money

    Since Nixon severed gold from the greenback in 1971, the U.S. dollar's comparative value has fallen 97%. Money printing today will only hasten the currency's destruction.

  • Is tech the go-to sector (for now)?

    Technology stocks could drive the market up for a while, but chip makers are in danger of overextending themselves once again.

  • The case for inflation -- and gold

    Top investors in precious metals are waiting for a pullback to buy, but they say gold looks like a promising inflation hedge well into the future. China is hungry for it, too.

  • The trouble with techs right now

    This important bellwether sector is generally too pricey for me and too risky to play -- long or short. Still, there is one name I like.

  • A golden opportunity for investors?

    The busy money-printing machines are more predictable than the still-sputtering U.S. economy, making gold a smart choice even after a spike to $1,000 an ounce.

  • Why this rally might head into fall

    As weak stocks rally and speculators take control, there are reasons to believe the market could be in for a pullback. But I'm not betting on it -- at least not yet.

  • There's no will to fight inflation

    Central banks around the world won't stop printing money if it means choking off growth. Don't expect anything different from the U.S. Fed.

  • U.S. Social Security crunch coming fast

    Here's a frightening prediction: The American public pension system's trust fund could go into the red in the next year, far sooner than expected. Will it get the next huge bailout?

  • Will U.S. economy's 'green shoots' wither?

    Though sprigs of optimism permeate Wall Street, a bellwether American business says it doesn't know when things will get better. Meanwhile, U.S. mortgage rates are up, and American boomers can't even think about retiring.

  • Printing money isn't the cure

    The U.S. economy needs strong medicine, and it's getting a big dose of it. But the side effects are dangerous, and the prognosis for a quick recovery is poor.

  • Blame Reagan for the U.S. financial mess?

    Noted economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman says yes, but that's just nonsense. The seeds of today's crisis were planted before the Gipper even took office.

  • The next crisis has already begun

    We've survived a financial meltdown, and we're working through a recession. But another phase -- when all the money printing melts down the U.S. dollar -- is just getting started.

  • Why this downturn is different

    Last time, there was trouble in the distance, though it was difficult to know just how far away. This time, what's dead ahead is hazy, but the case for precious metals is clear.

  • A trio of views to guide investors

    Two notable articles point to a less-than-shapely recovery, while a third leaves at least one reader stirred, if not shaken.

  • Where you'll see real recovery first

    Talk of 'green shoots' suggests springtime for the economy -- or at least certain parts of it. But as any farmer can tell you, tender sprouts are vulnerable to a late freeze.

  • Swine fluke or real market change?

    Stocks' reactions seemed disconnected from data last week, but that can happen at a turning point. Trouble is, such points are seen most clearly in a rearview mirror.

  • Thank Uncle Sam for the rally

    Cranking up the money-printing machines is like pouring gas on a smoldering fire. While the short-term response is predictable, the long-term effect is far from certain.

  • The pitfalls of short-selling

    Knowing which companies to short is essential, but that's not enough. Investors must also manage positions in a market that doesn't always behave logically.

  • A bear rally in bull's clothing?

    Markets have rocketed up, and investors are rejoicing. Whether the gains are transient or a trend remains to be seen, but earnings season could offer some clues.

  • U.S. bank plan a cure-all? Don't bet on it

    The U.S. Treasury's trillion-dollar program to relieve American banks of their 'toxic' assets probably won't do much for the economic crisis. Skepticism (but not dogmatism) is in order.

  • Got gold? You're right on the money

    The bubbles have burst, and the U.S. is (predictably) firing up the printing presses. This desperate move means the value of the American dollar is destined to disintegrate.

  • Bear's end? Wishing won't make it so

    Last week's rally tempted many to believe that the market has bottomed. Maybe some stocks have hit their lows, but there are many reasons to proceed with caution.

  • A market for window-shoppers only

    As Washington and Wall Street grumble at each other, the U.S. economy continues to falter. A big bear market rally could tempt you back into the game, but for now, it's better to look than buy.

  • Nationalization isn't the worst fear

    For all the anxiety the idea brings, Americans accept something similar whenever the FDIC takes over a bank. The real worry is financial Armageddon.

  • World's economies tumbling like dominoes

    Almost everybody now realizes how grave the crisis has become. But we won't be able to escape from this dark place until we understand how we got here.

  • Let the whistle-blower run the SEC

    The fraud investigator who warned about Bernard Madoff has talent that's sorely lacking among U.S. federal regulators. Plus: Are tech stocks nearly immune to bad news?

  • There's no shortcut to recovery

    Now that quick routes to prosperity -- via stocks and real estate -- have backfired, the U.S. is trying to print its way out of trouble. Americans needs to stop deceiving themselves.

  • Real U.S. recovery won't be anytime soon

    The gloom of America's recession is moving in. Investors will see relief rallies but not a bull market. The bubble that spawned the current bust in the U.S. was huge, and so are the repercussions.

  • Massive forces cloud market outlook

    Huge losses caused by the U.S. housing/credit bubble, and the gigantic stimulus packages they triggered, have created a very complex, confusing financial landscape.

  • Why China will recover first

    With a high savings rate, sensible mortgages and heavy reliance on cash, the Chinese are suffering less amid the credit meltdown. And a huge reserve of U.S. dollars doesn't hurt.

  • The meddlers can't tame the market

    Trying to rescue the banks or the automakers from the risks of capitalism is a doomed enterprise. That's because, as we're all suddenly learning, the market is a savage place.

  • Trillions down and still bailing

    A hodgepodge collection of efforts has put Americans on the hook for piles of money, and what is there to show for it? A still-terrible market and a recession.

  • Can Democrats handle the hot seat?

    The Republicans weren't willing to pursue major reforms that could have put America on firmer financial ground. If their successors don't either, they will meet the same fate in four years.

  • U.S. economy sinks as we save bankers

    Americans can bail out the financial system, but where will jobs come from to help the U.S. economy recover? And still ahead: What happens if the world stops taking American dollars?

  • Leave stocks to Buffett (for now)

    The Oracle of Omaha is a better investor than you or I. But don't let his optimism lead you to dive into the market at this time. He can afford to take more risks than we can.

  • Is credit crisis over? Not so fast

    An astute observer says the financial system isn't anywhere close to a recovery, and a severe global recession is likely to deepen the disaster.

  • Danger: The wipeout is still ahead

    We haven't seen the moment of capitulation that ends a market bust, so the fear and pain will get worse before they get better. Also: Gold's next run-up.

  • The next crisis: The U.S. economy

    The American banking system's meltdown will run its course soon enough. Then the U.S. will have to face the reality of the coming severe recession.

  • Another Fed gift to Wall Street

    The bulls thought last week's quarter-point interest-rate cut wasn't enough. So the U.S. central bank found another way to lift the spirits of American investors.

  • U.S. Fed chief still doesn't get it

    Ben Bernanke's tough talk on inflation suggests the U.S. economy may be improving. He's wrong, and his comments will backfire.

  • When will the market face reality?

    Oil prices are soaring, inflation is raging in the U.S. and a recession is taking hold, while Wall Street continues to pretend the worst is over. But these problems won't just disappear.

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